Comments on: Taiwan Strait http://apac2020.the-diplomat.com/flashpoint-asia/taiwan-strait/ A look into Asia in the year 2020 Wed, 11 Aug 2010 14:31:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: Bill. http://apac2020.the-diplomat.com/flashpoint-asia/taiwan-strait/#comment-16 Bill. Fri, 08 Jan 2010 06:43:03 +0000 http://apac2020.the-diplomat.com/?p=225#comment-16 In all of the books and articles I have read recently, I think Taiwan's union with China is basically a done deal in all but deed. One by one, China is subverting the few countries still backing Taiwan's claim to independence. None are going to come to it's aid if the Chinese decide to move. Even the US will think twice before militarily trying to intervene, no matter what it publicly says. We cannot chance losing the one country that is keeping our country solvent, not to mention that the Chinese are prepared for our intervention in many unconventional ways. I think it will happen before 2050. In all of the books and articles I have read recently, I think Taiwan’s union with China is basically a done deal in all but deed. One by one, China is subverting the few countries still backing Taiwan’s claim to independence.

None are going to come to it’s aid if the Chinese decide to move. Even the US will think twice before militarily trying to intervene, no matter what it publicly says. We cannot chance losing the one country that is keeping our country solvent, not to mention that the Chinese are prepared for our intervention in many unconventional ways. I think it will happen before 2050.

]]> By: Thomas Patterson http://apac2020.the-diplomat.com/flashpoint-asia/taiwan-strait/#comment-3 Thomas Patterson Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:20:54 +0000 http://apac2020.the-diplomat.com/?p=225#comment-3 "Thanks to Ma Ying-jeou, the day of reckoning regarding the status of Taiwan has been postponed." But has it been postponed? One of the main problems with Ma Ying-jeou's approach towards China is that he is putting all of his eggs in the Chinese basket. By neglecting economic and military ties with more traditional allies, such as Japan and the United States, in favor of ties with China (Exhibits A and B: the administration's fervor to hastily sign an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and other agreements with Beijing before consensus exists in Taiwan superimposed with the hasty decision of former Premier Liu to threaten war against Japan over a fishing boat collision, or the unfortunate decision to blacklist Japanese representative to Taiwan Masaki Saito for saying the Japan considers Taiwan's status to be undetermined (which it does, as does the US)and by hesitating to pursue new ties where possible with other countries, the Taiwanese government is creating a crisis of international support for Taiwan. And, while the Ma administration notes that it would like to purchase new weapons such as F-16s, it hardly makes its requests loudly or with frequency. Doing so might just harm those oh-so-precious ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the military imbalance tilts ever more heavily in favor of China. In fact, one could easily state that the day of reckoning has been hastened. The Chinese authorities have made it known that they plan to acquire Taiwan regardless of what the Taiwanese think about the situation. By weakening the country's defense posture and increasing its dependence on China, the Ma administration is ensuring that the day that China can impose its will militarily, and/or through economic coercion is moving closer, not further away. Your "thanks" to Ma sounds a bit premature to me. “Thanks to Ma Ying-jeou, the day of reckoning regarding the status of Taiwan has been postponed.”

But has it been postponed? One of the main problems with Ma Ying-jeou’s approach towards China is that he is putting all of his eggs in the Chinese basket. By neglecting economic and military ties with more traditional allies, such as Japan and the United States, in favor of ties with China (Exhibits A and B: the administration’s fervor to hastily sign an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and other agreements with Beijing before consensus exists in Taiwan superimposed with the hasty decision of former Premier Liu to threaten war against Japan over a fishing boat collision, or the unfortunate decision to blacklist Japanese representative to Taiwan Masaki Saito for saying the Japan considers Taiwan’s status to be undetermined (which it does, as does the US)and by hesitating to pursue new ties where possible with other countries, the Taiwanese government is creating a crisis of international support for Taiwan.

And, while the Ma administration notes that it would like to purchase new weapons such as F-16s, it hardly makes its requests loudly or with frequency. Doing so might just harm those oh-so-precious ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the military imbalance tilts ever more heavily in favor of China.

In fact, one could easily state that the day of reckoning has been hastened. The Chinese authorities have made it known that they plan to acquire Taiwan regardless of what the Taiwanese think about the situation. By weakening the country’s defense posture and increasing its dependence on China, the Ma administration is ensuring that the day that China can impose its will militarily, and/or through economic coercion is moving closer, not further away.

Your “thanks” to Ma sounds a bit premature to me.

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