The next two years will show if Afghanistan will fall back into the chaos of the 1990s or begin the arduous task of re-building a nation state that is ethnically diverse, economically sustainable and territorially secure. However, more than internal dynamics, geopolitics will determine Afghanistan’s next ten years and its pace toward earned sovereignty. The Americans, Indians and Pakistanis will play prime military, political and economic roles for decades but the nature of their engagement will be clear in the next three years and guided by how their national security interests merge and diverge. US plans to support domestic political reconciliation between tribal, Taliban and government leaders, and granting asylum will be key to near-term success, but victory will only come through a regional influence-sharing formula between India and Pakistan–decades-old rivals and fomenters of regional insurgencies.

A regional accord could become the foundation of the new Afghanistan. From trade routes to military training, India and Pakistan will both be able to make positive contributions with national security dividends. On the other hand, failure could lead to another gruesome civil war (similar to the 1990s) that may begin with a military coup in Kabul. Continued chaos will cement transnational terrorist networks and shift the arch of insecurity to Central Asia inviting more not less regional and international interference in Afghanistan–China, Iran, Russia, etc. That said, international intervention through socio-economic aid and security assistance will be required for the next two decades but organizations such as the United Nations and Organization of Islamic Countries will have to take a lead role for legitimacy.

On balance, regional reconciliation in parallel with domestic political accords could form the basis for a prosperous Afghanistan rich in mineral resources and ethnically diverse under the rule of law. On the other hand, if geopolitics are ignored the worst is yet to come.

Haider Mullick is a fellow at the US Joint Special Operations University and a research fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, and the author of the new book-length monograph ‘Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies.’ This article is the result of a recent research trip to India and Pakistan.