The 2010 elections in Burma will be a major event for the country and of great interest to the international community, in particular the West. A recent visit by two high-level US diplomats to the small Asian nation, led by Assistant Secretary for Asia Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, was perceived as a rare positive gesture by the Burmese military government (Tatmadaw). And although Burmese Senior General Than Shwe did not meet the US delegation, the American diplomats were allowed to meet with other prominent figures in the nation’s political arena, including Burmese Prime Minister Gen. Thein Sein and opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who proposed in September to Than Shwe to ‘cooperate in easing international sanctions.’

On November 24, Win Tin, a member of the Central Executive Committee of Suu Kyi’s party, studying the 2008 Constitution, forecast that, ‘the election will guarantee the rule of the military…the new Parliament and the new government will be controlled by this Constitution that will guarantee the military’s rule for many years to come.’ While it’s too early to offer a prognosis, Win Tin’s statement, shared by the Burmese I interviewed during my visit there last November, should be given serious consideration. The health of General Than Shwe, whose use of the Burmese way (Bama lu) is aimed at maintaining psychological hold over the people, is poor. If the leading generals stick to a common strategy the junta will survive. However the current military government will have difficulty staying in power if pro-Western factions divide them.
The future of Burma’s minorities–the Shans, Mons, Kachins, Karens, Chins and the forgotten Rohingyas of Arakan–will, unfortunately, not be secured so easily. Even if the National League for Democracy wants to follow some of the guidelines of the 1947 Panglong Agreement, its policy so far for all Burmese does not include dramatic change.
China and India, meanwhile, will remain key diplomatic and economic players as Chinese and Indians born in Burma contribute significantly to regional harmony. Neighbouring Thailand will, for its part, continue to follow the ASEAN policy of non-interference in Burma’s internal affairs.

Dr Jean Berlie is an honorary research fellow at the Centre of Asian Studies at the University of Hong Kong.