Over the coming decade, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic will remain politically stable. The ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party is the sole political party and holds a monopoly on power, with most of the educated elite and leading business people having been recruited into the LPRP. The media is entirely controlled by the party, and there’s no freedom of association or expression. No criticism of the LPRP or government is tolerated, and there are no plans to introduce democratic reforms. There’s no credible opposition movement either inside or outside the country, though deputies may use the National Assembly as an avenue for criticising government failings. The country’s legal framework will also be improved over the next decade.

The LPRP’s commitment to economic development and a relatively free market economy will continue, while foreign direct investment and foreign aid will be encouraged as the best means by which to achieve the Party’s goal of increasing GDP per capita enough to lift Laos out of the United Nation’s Least Developed Country category by 2020.

However, several factors stand in the way of any such progress. By the end of the decade, the country’s population will be approaching 10 million, while the gap between urban and rural living standards will have increased further, encouraging increasing internal migration. Government services also will likely remain poor.

Meanwhile, corruption will continue to undermine revenue collection from individuals, although this will be offset by increases in taxes and charges on hydroelectricity production and by mining royalties. Tourism will also likely increase over the next decade, though badly needed government investment in infrastructure, education and health is unlikely to grow by much, leaving foreign aid donors to mount essential programs.

In foreign policy, Laos will remain committed to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but will resist any liberalizing influences. It will also likely continue to draw political support from similarly nominal communist regimes in Vietnam and China, whose competing influence it will balance as best it can. Both countries will continue to be given privileged access to exploit Laos’ natural resources, competition for which will come mainly from Thailand. China will also likely replace Japan as Laos’ principal aid donor by the end of the decade.

Martin Stuart-Fox is Emeritus Professor at the University of Queensland. He has written widely on Laos.