Perhaps the Muslim phrase ‘Inshallah’ (‘God Willing’) might well reflect the sentiment some Sri Lankans hold towards the turbulent course their nation’s politics has taken in recent decades. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is not only becoming less predictable, but also again showing some increased volatility in the political arena, with the forthcoming presidential election. This event will likely be guided by two major factors: the crisis within the nation’s political community in the recent past and the increasing level of critique of the institutionalized power structures.

In a strange twist, current President Mahinda Rajapaksa is facing his former Army Chief Sarath Fonseka, as the main rival in the contest. This dynamic seems to reflect scholarly predictions that were made in the early 1990s about changing civil-military relations in the state. Nonetheless, the election results will decide Sri Lanka’s short-term agenda for the next decade. In the long-term, though, one thing is certain–unless all inclusive margins of peace development and security are met, any power holders in Sri Lanka will not be secure in their positions within the constitutional framework. In addition, any gulf created as a result will continue to be filled by the military and/or alternative forces. Accordingly, only long-term sustained peace will be able to resolve the new political crisis and widely-shared criticisms of the state. Some ways forward here might include the embracing and implementation of concepts like dialogue, reconstruction, reconciliation and reform.

Modern political development can in part be defined as increasing governmental efficiency in utilizing the human and material resources of a nation for its collective goals. It requires national unification, economic sustainability–beyond the bare means for survival–social welfare, an automated economy and political responsibility. The effective handling of these challenges will also likely decide the direction of Sri Lanka’s future foreign policy, in particular with countries like India, China and the United States, which have previously shown an interest in building strategic ties with the country.

Anula Attanayake is a senior lecturer in history at the University of Ruhuna, Sri-Lanka, and holds a PhD in International Studies from the School of International Studies, JNU,NEW Delhi.