Even by Central Asian standards, isolated and mountainous Tajikistan has a challenging decade ahead.

After stumbling unexpectedly into independence, the poorest post-Soviet statelet endured a gangster-style civil war through much of the 1990s. Talent fled; infrastructure collapsed. A peace accord in 1997 brought stability, but endemic corruption still stifles foreign investment. The limited wealth remains locked within a feudal organism prone to sporadic clan fighting.

The US-led campaign to topple the Taliban in 2001 brought Tajikistan back into the corridors of marginal western interest, but the country’s strategic location also makes it a perfect transit route for the booming trade in Afghan-born narcotics, enriching powerful gangs and slowly spawning the spread of HIV.

Education is suffering. Though the government still boasts of a 99.5 percent literacy rate, experts warn that, since independence, the number is in freefall.

With few jobs, a generation of young men is migrating to Russia to work in dangerous and hostile conditions. They contribute the world’s highest remittances as percent of GDP, according to the World Bank, at roughly 50 percent in 2008. That gives Moscow leverage over the economy.

Tajikistan’s leaders are stowing hope for the next decade in the energy potential of the country’s rivers. Already Tajikistan is home to the world’s tallest hydropower dam, Nurek, though the aging facility is unable to meet domestic demand.

Downstream Uzbekistan is concerned Tajikistan could leverage water supplies, threatening its agriculture. The two countries spar often, most painfully when hydrocarbon-rich Uzbekistan cuts gas and electricity supplies in winter.

In response, Dushanbe is stepping up efforts to construct more hydropower facilities and is fashioning its national identity around a colossal project envisioned by the Soviets in the 1960s. At a proposed 335-meters, Rogun could produce enough power for export, and much-needed hard currency.

Yet, unable to secure foreign financing–perhaps because the spending is so opaque –leaders lately are demanding that all citizens donate a months’ salary to the project. Many, struggling to feed their families, are skeptical they will ever see the dam completed, let alone possess a marketable share.